Bad Gambling Advice: Week 12
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Last week: 3-6 ATS, 2-6-1 totals; Season to date: 44-53-2 ATS, 41-54-4 totals
Yep, a bad week last week. The column’s title is once again accurate.
This week is SoCon Saturday, which means... a bunch of games with no posted line and that I won’t pick because really, why bother picking Alabama vs. UT-Chatt? More to the point, there are some SEC teams that are playing random G5 teams, which will be beatdowns, but at least there are lines on those games.
Also: a bunch of bad football at 11 AM.
UL Monroe at Ole Miss (11:00 AM CT, SEC Network): UL Monroe is bad bad bad, but this is also a game that screams “mailed-in performance.” You’re sandwiched between Georgia and the Egg Bowl.
Score Prediction: Ole Miss 38, UL Monroe 7
Picks: UL Monroe +37, Under 62
Southern Miss at Mississippi State (11:00 AM CT, SEC Network+): Mississippi State somewhat surprisingly fired their coach earlier this week, which is an admission that they shouldn’t have hired him except they felt that they had to after Mike Leach’s death. As such, oh God, they’re mailing this in, aren’t they?
Score Prediction: Southern Miss 28, Mississippi State 24
Picks: Southern Miss +14, Over 46.5
Oklahoma at BYU (11:00 AM CT, ESPN): This game is at 10 AM local time in Provo, which... why? Why are we doing this? Don’t you have late time slots for a reason, ESPN?
Score Prediction: Oklahoma 45, BYU 17
Picks: Oklahoma -24, Over 58
Chattanooga at Alabama (11:00 AM CT, SEC Network+) and Abilene Christian at Texas A&M (11:00 AM CT, SEC Network+): No line on either of these games. Texas A&M, like Mississippi State, has an interim coach. Unlike Mississippi State, Texas A&M is out $76 million to have an interim coach.
Georgia at Tennessee (2:30 PM CT, CBS): Remember back in like August when people thought Joe Milton was going to be a Heisman candidate? That was fun. Let’s do that again. Anyway it feels like some people definitely jumped the gun with the declaration that Tennessee was back after going 11-2 last season.
Score Prediction: Georgia 34, Tennessee 17
Picks: Georgia -10.5, Under 58.5
New Mexico State at Auburn (3:00 PM CT, SEC Network): Look, New Mexico State coming into this game with an 8-3 record is low-key awesome. This line is this big why, exactly?
Score Prediction: Auburn 28, New Mexico State 17
Picks: New Mexico State +23.5, Under 48.5
Florida at Missouri (6:30 PM CT, ESPN): I’m not actually going to pick Florida outright, but... does anyone feel like this is kind of a trap game for Missourah? Or that Florida might be desperate to pick up a sixth win?
Score Prediction: Missouri 34, Florida 24
Picks: Florida +11, Under 59
Kentucky at South Carolina (6:30 PM CT, SEC Network): Oh, this one is going to get dumb.
Score Prediction: South Carolina 31, Kentucky 28
Picks: South Carolina -1, Over 55
FIU at Arkansas (6:30 PM CT, ESPNU): Again, why the hell is this line this big? I mean, FIU sucks, but... Arkansas? Really?
Score Prediction: Arkansas 34, FIU 7
Picks: FIU +29.5, Under 50.5
Georgia State at LSU (7:00 PM CT, ESPN2): A weird quirk is that the over is 10-0 in LSU games this season. That’s what happens when you don’t have a defense. Also, LSU could probably hit the over by themselves if they really wanted to.
Score Prediction: LSU 63, Georgia State 21
Picks: LSU -31.5, Over 71
Texas at Iowa State (7:00 PM CT, FOX): Oh this game is the most trap game that has ever trap gamed. It would also be the most hilarious possible result for Big 12 commisssioner Brett Yormark. Calling my shot.
Score Prediction: Iowa State 24, Texas 20
Picks: Iowa State +7.5, Under 46.5
