The Oscars are traditionally a gambling minefield, as hot favourites suddenly develop a bad smell and rank outsiders leapfrog cinematic milestones to instant glory before being forgotten quick-smart.
Recall for instance, 1941, when the schmaltzy mining melodrama How Green Was My Valley triumphed as Best Picture, overshadowing a little number by Orson Welles called Citizen Kane. Or 1976, when you would have done your dough on Martin Scorsese’s harrowing Taxi Driver. It was felled by Rocky for the Best Picture statuette.
Scorsese was looking good again in 1990 with Goodfellas, which received overwhelmingly positive reviews and was nominated for six Oscars, but that wasn’t enough. It was toppled by Kevin Costner and Dances with Wolves, the legacy of which has come to be increasingly questioned by critics.
Today, the fact that Casablanca won the Best Picture statuette doesn’t come as a surprise, with the nicely balanced war romance ranked way up in many experts’ Top 100 Films lists. But at the 1943 Oscars the nominations were led by The Song of Bernadette, which had 12, and it was considered to be the front-runner. The audience was apparently astonished when the Bogart-Bergman classic was announced, and United Press International said: “Casablanca was a dark horse.”
More? The light-hearted musical comedy-drama Going My Way, with the always-cheesy Bing Crosby, toppled Double Indemnity in 1944. The latter is now universally regarded as the great classic of noir. Or Kramer Vs. Kramer over Apocalypse Now in 1979. Then there was the plodding The English Patient trumping fabulous Fargo in 1996. Vertigo, perhaps Alfred Hitchcock’s greatest achievement? It wasn’t even nominated as Best Picture.
Godfather I and II are judged worthy winners but how did Godfather III get in there?
(Hell, i’d add the execrable Gladiator winning over anything in 2001 and shameless Baby Boomer-pandering flick Forrest Gump over all-time classic Pulp Fiction as serious Oscar slipups, too. –Ed.)
The Academy has heaped many honours on worthy winners but totally ignored many great films. It’s said to have tried lately to limit the influence of pressure groups and box-office receipts, but money-making blockbusting formulaic titans can still succeed.
Yes, it’s all subjective, folks. Yes, we’ll probably all tune in when the glitz/glam cliché strikes Hollywood again next week. Yes, we’ll have a gamble, or two, or three. Barring bombshells by the Academy, we may even have a win. Good luck, Oscar punters. The number of nominees for Best Picture has been doubled from five to 10 this year. Stick with the other categories perhaps, with the usual five nominees. But don’t be surprised by anything that pops out of an envelope.
Odds on movies nominated in the category of „Best Motion Picture” at the 82nd annual Academy Awards according to Bet 365 online bookmakers are as follows:
The Hurt Locker: 8/11Avatar: 5/4Inglourious Basterds: 16/1Up in the Air: 66/1Precious: 80/1Up: 80/1District 9: 100/1The Blind Side: 150/1An Education: 150/1A Serious Man: 200/1
02 March, 2010